How much will sea level rise in the next 50 years?

An increasingly large fraction of the global population lives close to sea level and is vulnerable to rising level. Having a sense of the magnitude of sea level rise over coming decades is critical for planning in all sectors as well as for individuals—whether for management, development, protection, mitigation, or adaptation. A major obstacle to progress is knowing the timeframe and magnitude of the response of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica to external drivers such as a warming atmosphere and ocean—in part because of the inaccessibility of the base of these ice sheets and the incomplete understanding of the laws governing motion. Another obstacle is the challenge of shifting communication and decision-making on sea level change toward a mode in which uncertainty is an inherent and understood component of the prediction.

8 comments

1. rouault says:

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   If rain pattern shifts, some country could get more rain, some less. With sea level rise, it will rise everywhere. Already, millions of people are affected by sea level rise (seasonal or extreme events, just go to Bengladesh) just had a few centimeter of sea level rise and the number of affected people will increase by the millions. People of Maldive Islands are seriously thinking of relocating because current sea level rise already threaten them. They are dozen of other examples.
2. africain says:

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   PAM’s comment is right, the rise of sea level is not by itself the worst problem : the disruptions of precipitations will cause major agricultural problems and food shortage. But most of the ways aiming at slowing down this rise (we are of course unable to stop it) will also slow down the other dangers of the climate change.
3. PAM says:

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   I don’t see this as an issue.
   Not because it is not important but this to far in the future.
   The sea rising is a minor issue compared to mid term impacts on food (agriculture, food from sea) and water.
   On the water side, we will have major disruptions on precipitations decades ahead of seeing an impact on sea rising.
   10 years from now, sea rising won’t be an issue (except for adaptation plans) but the other impacts of GW will dwarf it.
   At this point sea rising is taking our eyes off of the prize.
   Not to deny its importance but before sea rising we will have a lot of other problems and we should focus on making sure we are focusing on other points.
   For example, in 10-20 years, when presented with loosing their homes or spending trillions, people of Florida will worry about this but in the next 10 years, they will be more concerned about hurricanes, drought, price of oil and food than about sea rising.
4. SandraB says:

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   As to this question and considerations made by other guests I think it is important to have in consideration the geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences of ice sheets melting not only in the Antartic, but specially in the Artic.
   Did any one consider what is already happening in what concerns to the exploitation of resources as diamonds, gaz and water and the amount of political and economic interests associated?
   And what if the melting is so significant as to allow that new maritime routes can be used, and countries which were very limited in its access to open sea came to have a full access to it?
   So, considering this as an hypothesis, how can we imagine that it will be possible to have real interest in stopping the damages being done to our planet?
5. valmasdel says:

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   The question should be modified to : “Can we robustly estimate uncertainties on future sea level range over the next decades to centuries?”
6. deshraj says:

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   sea level rise may be a problem in next few years but it is most important to see the factors responsible for the global temperature rise. If temperature will rise ice sheets melt down but the temperature of equitorial region will also increase and ultimately rate of evaporation will also increase. and because of high T aerosols will hold this evaporated water for long time and rain will be delayed.
7. MartinJuckes says:

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   I think the question misses the point about sea level rise: the rate of rise is currently slow, but may accelerate towards the end of the century. Sea level rise is unlikely to be a problem in the next 50 years, but the sea level rise that we are committed to as an unavoidable consequence of our actions is likely to be significant.
8. joel.savarino says:

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   Right,

   this is a fundamental question and its answer
   requires a sustainable funding of the basic research on climate which is not the direction that ICSU editorial want us to take