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How can we get past the debates between natural and anthropogenic causes of global changes, and shift our attention towards reducing and dealing with the impacts of these changes?
Posted on July 28th, 2009Categorized as Biodiversity, Climate, Earth System, Human Health, Interdisciplinary, Social Science, Social-Ecological Systems Tagged as anthropogenic factors, climate change, human dimension, natural factors
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How to minimize the natural vs anthropogenic controversy on global changes/warming issues? It seems that there is no more scientific doubts that climate changes are moving the earth system to a warmer period. It seems that the actual controversy on how much is natural and how much is human related is a worthless discussion in many senses. We have to focus on how to diminish the impacts rather than finding which is the guilty mechanism or process. Whatever the solutions, they have to be implemented in the human dimension first.
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The answer is that, as Naomi Oreskes shows here: http://www.uctv.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=13459 , we are up against a dirty tricks brigade. Therefore we must downplay our doubts and emphasize the worst case scenarios rather than always giving conservative underestimates which are untrue. This is not a new idea. Stephen Schneider put it forward over ten years ago http://rpuchalsky.home.att.net/sci_env/sch_quote.html#quote
This remark is specially true for solar forcing of climate. Nobody doubts that the sun influences the climate, but most of the solar variability is cyclic (for exemple the 11-year variability does not affect the long term trend of the climate), and furthermore humans have no way to control future solar changes. Therefore lets put our acts together on what we can do: to minimize the anthropogenic impact on climate.
There should be more effort to link mitigation of GHG emissions with development of adapatation strategies.
The observations (ice cores) of the past glaciation cycles shows not only a strong correlation between temperature and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, but the feedback effect of the CO2 increase. So that any (even minor) addition to some previous CO2 increases the temperature, that in turn should increase any natural emission of CO2, if we believe the ice cores.
Moreover, the human addition of CO2 is not minor. It is relatively easy to sum up the quantity of coal, fuel, gas, wood burned each year : the corresponding CO2 is not minor. It is dangerously modifying the previous equilibrium. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is higher than the one observed for a million of years or more (EPICA ice core).
So that we have no choice. Not only the temperature is rising, and the climate changing, but he oceans are acidified by the CO2 emissions, a bad thing for corals (dying) and marine life and biodiversity.