How will humanity manage peak oil and climate change impacts and promote an ordered and gradual transition to low carbon economies?

The strong environmental effects of greenhouse gas emissions derived from oil use and the negative socio-economic consequences of future oil scarcity make it urgent to shift to alternative affordable energy sources. A recent assessment of the International Energy Agency, an OECD prestigious institution, alerts that oil shortage and increased energy costs can easily be an immediate reality after the current financial crisis if massive and strategic investments in oil industry are not rapidly and massively implemented.

Multiple economic, scientific, technological and political pathways should be implemented to achieve this global energy transition. States should empower their national strategies to improve the efficiency in energy generation, transmission and consumption and thus reduce progressively carbon emissions. States should also facilitate the massive deployment of renewable energies and public transport, promote the progressive electrification of the car industry, and globally shift to sustainable strategies in many other economic sectors. At the international level, governments should rapidly promote multilateral and bilateral cooperative agreements on energy and climate policies. In addition, states might promote the creation of a United Nations international programme to facilitate and coordinate a world-wide ordered and non-traumatic transition to low-carbon and energy-efficient economie. This UN international programme could develop or facilitate multilateral regulatory agreements to avoid the emergence of speculative dynamics and volatility on oil prices that ultimately damage economic stability and increase ongoing global food-security crisis. Finally, I advocate for a much greater scientific effort urgently placed on the interactions between peak oil, climate change and global society change. The scale, urgency and severity of peak oil and climate change mean that no action is too small to matter, too large to contemplate, or too soon to begin. There is not much time left.

4 comments

1. clim101 says:

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   I actually believe that peak oil may go in some way to forcefully reducing the world’s carbon emissions. Not without huge social and political cost however…
2. George.Mobus says:

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   Relating to the question, in particular the management of peak oil and its impact on society, concern for the effects of declining energy return on energy investment (EROEI, sometimes EROI) on fossil fuel production should be a key element in understanding the economic impacts. In the end it is the net usable energy (also known as exergy) that is what drives the economy of the world. As EROEI declines over time (see Gagnon, Hall, & Brinker (2009), “A Preliminary Investigation of Energy Return on Energy Investment for Global Oil and Gas Production”, Energies, 2, 490-503, http://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies) the combination with peak oil production means that net energy available from that source will also decline, more rapidly. Oil is a ‘kingpin’ energy source in that it has a high energy content per weight or volume and is ideal for transportation. It takes diesel fuel, for example, to mine coal, so less net energy from oil could mean less energy available from coal as well!

   As the above cited paper points out the data for accurate estimations of EROEI are nearly non-existent and currently require proxy approximations from monetized values, for example energy intensity data. However, these data are flawed by numerous problems associated with, for example, calculations of GDP as any kind of accurate measure of economic activity.

   Research into actual energy input requirements for producing economically usable energy is needed. The EROEI numbers for all of our presumptive energy sources, alternatives and conventional, are essential to making informed policy decisions that will channel scarce resources into the best portfolio of energy options in the future. For example, once the true EROEI of coal-fired electrical generation using carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is known we can be in a better position to decide the future of coal as a source.

   Technical feasibility on all energy sources is not really the issue. Net energy gain from energy investments in capture and conversion capital (e.g. solar panels and wind turbines) is what will matter most to future economic health.
3. RayOrzechowski says:

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   I’m surely no expert in this complex area, but it seems probable, if only intuitively, that socio-economic instability will worsen as oil reserves dwindle.
4. rsteeves says:

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   I couldn’t agree more, especially with the last two sentences.
   A corollary question might be, from a sociologic perspective,
   how can we better motivate the public toward greater awareness and greater willingness to behave as concerned world citizens?