How will the release of Siberian methane affect global warming? Can climate models predict its signature?

Because it’s a complicated process, and we can’t predict how much of the released gas may be re-absorbed by plants and the oceans, how quickly it will be released, or whether the sudden increase in methane will trigger an, as yet, un-predicted event. It is estimated that a Siberian thaw could push 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere. The U.N.-sponsored Panel on Climate Change has published its estimate for global warming over the next one hundred years, producing a rise of between 3 and 11 degrees F. The addition of Siberian gas releases could change these predictions to 5 to 15 degrees F.

One comment

1. GlennTamblyn says:

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   These are my comments from another question about Arctic Methane

   This seems to me to be the single most important area of Climate Change research confronting us today. Because:

   1. We know so little about what is happening up there
   2. Low level emissions of Methane have already started
   3. We know very little about how Methane emission rates could climb as AGW proceeds beyond the current 0.8C
   4. Recent reports suggest that the volumes of carbon in the north could more than rival all human emmissions in their greenhouse impact
   5. This is one of the so called ‘tipping points’ that could move the Climate Change threat to a whole new level. And any sudden temperature increase due to the short term spike of warming impact from methane release could then trigger other positive feedback ‘tipping points’. Methane emissions could be the first domino in a chain of events that leads to catastrophic levels of AGW. We don’t know. And we need to.
   6. The potential for Methane emissions to escalate to serious levels rapidly means that we need some serious research fast to get a handle on what is happening.
   7. This has to be moved onto the worlds policy agenda. If methane emission rates started to climb rapidly over the next decade or so, current policy directions being discussed for Copenhagen may be woefully inadequate. Some have spoken of a Methane TimeBomb. With bubbles rising through lakes & pools and from the sea floor around the Arctic, it appears the bomb is ticking. And we can’t see the countdown timer.