Is nature predictable?

Earth systems have a natural tendency to be complex, i.e. several processes act at the same time. The process-response function is therefore logically complex, i.e. not dependant on one process. Earth system sciences have become almost purely empiric and a theoretical approach is required to provide a sound basis for models. Partly deterministic, partly probabilistic model runs for all permutations of variables should then tell us whether the system is predictable. This requires a joint effort of earth scientists, climatologists, physicists, chemists, biologists, mathematicians, statisticians, modellers, and many others.

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