Are the world’s ecosystems in imminent danger of destruction due to the rate of temperature increase?

‘Leemans and Eickhout (2004) found that adaptive capacity decreases rapidly with an increasing rate of climate change. Their study finds that five percent of all ecosystems cannot adapt more quickly than 0.1 C per decade over time. Forests will be among the ecosystems to experience problems first because their ability to migrate to stay within the climate zone they are adapted to is limited. If the rate is 0.3 C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will not be able to adapt. If the rate should exceed 0.4 C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, opportunistic species will dominate, and the breakdown of biological material will lead to even greater emissions of CO2. This will in turn increase the rate of warming’ –Leemans and Eickhout (2004), ‘Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change,’ Global Environmental Change 14, 219–228

One comment

1. Moderator says:

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   (Submitted by user “biodive” prior to the 1 September deadline)

   Alternative question:

   Q: Will the current exponential rate of biodiversity loss at the genetic, species and ecosystems level continue until it is eventually too late, or will we be able to rise to the challenge of sustaining our long-term existence as a species by genuinely adopting a sustainable utilization approach?

   Why, and Obstacles: We are totally dependent on ecosystem goods and services for crucial life-supporting functions (such as food, clean water and fresh air). Yet we continue to push thousands of species to the brink of extinction and reduce pristine ecosystems to a mere fraction of their former extent, undermining our own existence as a species in the process. We need to stop preaching what should be done and start acting now, collectively, before we reach a point of no return. We may still be in time, but for how long?