What is the net effect of changing cloudiness on global climate?

The net effect of the present cloudiness is to clearly cool the global climate. Will the green house gas induced climate change strengthen or diminish the net effect of clouds on, e.g. surface temperature?

What are the feed back mechanisms between biodiversity and climate, how will they change over the next decades and what are the consequences?

Climate change and biodiversity change are interacting in feed-back loops that are poorly understood and unquantified and modelled. This applies to changing land (agriculture, desertification, cities, etc), and oceans (colour and physical stability of the ocean surface, acidification and calcifying organisms etc.) alike. The changing physico-chemical environment will exert important selective pressures on biological species and communities. Extinction of vulnerable species and explosions of adapted species are to be expected. They will change surface characteristics such as temperature, colour and albedo, gas exchange and atmospheric composition (CO2, NOx, methane). To predict the consequences a good understanding of these feed-back mechanisms is required, both on land and in the oceans.ue

How sensitive is the oceanic conveyor belt to the influx of glacial melt water and/or decrease of seasonal ice formation in the Arctic Ocean/North Atlantic Ocean?

The impact of all other global warming issues may be minimized if there is a threshold of fresh water influx and/or decrease of seasonal ice formation which may soon be exceeded and thus dramatically slow or reverse the trend of global warming.

Can we quantify uncertainties in complex models of the complete Earth System?

The models we are using to base our judgements on are all imperfect. We must acknowledge this and attempt to address quantitatively how these uncertainties affect the judgements we are able to make on the basis of these models. Without uncertainty estimates (error bars if you like) any decision making will be arbitrary. With them it is more complex, remains subjective but at least can be justified and explained. This will be essential if the hard choices that we face are to be effectively communicated and acted on. Addressing uncertainty is central to all aspects of modelling, from the dynamic climate models to models of ecological systems, society and economics. Coupling such models makes uncertainty quantification even more essential. I believe this is a fundamental question to address before we can even start to answer specific questions about the Earth System.

How much will sea level rise in the next 50 years?

An increasingly large fraction of the global population lives close to sea level and is vulnerable to rising level. Having a sense of the magnitude of sea level rise over coming decades is critical for planning in all sectors as well as for individuals—whether for management, development, protection, mitigation, or adaptation. A major obstacle to progress is knowing the timeframe and magnitude of the response of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica to external drivers such as a warming atmosphere and ocean—in part because of the inaccessibility of the base of these ice sheets and the incomplete understanding of the laws governing motion. Another obstacle is the challenge of shifting communication and decision-making on sea level change toward a mode in which uncertainty is an inherent and understood component of the prediction.

How will humanity manage peak oil and climate change impacts and promote an ordered and gradual transition to low carbon economies?

The strong environmental effects of greenhouse gas emissions derived from oil use and the negative socio-economic consequences of future oil scarcity make it urgent to shift to alternative affordable energy sources. A recent assessment of the International Energy Agency, an OECD prestigious institution, alerts that oil shortage and increased energy costs can easily be an immediate reality after the current financial crisis if massive and strategic investments in oil industry are not rapidly and massively implemented.

Multiple economic, scientific, technological and political pathways should be implemented to achieve this global energy transition. States should empower their national strategies to improve the efficiency in energy generation, transmission and consumption and thus reduce progressively carbon emissions. States should also facilitate the massive deployment of renewable energies and public transport, promote the progressive electrification of the car industry, and globally shift to sustainable strategies in many other economic sectors. At the international level, governments should rapidly promote multilateral and bilateral cooperative agreements on energy and climate policies. In addition, states might promote the creation of a United Nations international programme to facilitate and coordinate a world-wide ordered and non-traumatic transition to low-carbon and energy-efficient economie. This UN international programme could develop or facilitate multilateral regulatory agreements to avoid the emergence of speculative dynamics and volatility on oil prices that ultimately damage economic stability and increase ongoing global food-security crisis. Finally, I advocate for a much greater scientific effort urgently placed on the interactions between peak oil, climate change and global society change. The scale, urgency and severity of peak oil and climate change mean that no action is too small to matter, too large to contemplate, or too soon to begin. There is not much time left.

What are the components and dimensions of biodiversity that are necessary for particular ecosytem processes, functions and services, now and in the future?

Biodiversity has many dimensions (composition, variation, richness, phylogenetic, interactions and networks). We understand that diversity and variability provide insurance against future changes (~resilience). But which measures of biodiversity will best predict the quality and quantity of ecosystem processes, functions and services that biodiversity supports and on which we depend? When, where and how is biodiversity most significant? Answering this question, even in very general terms, is a necessary pre-requisite to an effective biodiversity monitoring system, to predicting damaging impacts of biodiversity loss, and will contribute to fully integrated earth system models.

What is the influence of trends in solar output on the atmosphere and oceans?

Because of the comparatively short period for which we have observations of the variations in the sun’s energy output, we have no reliable information of its longer-term trends and their probable effect on the earth’s temperature trends. Yet studies of indirect observations from Beryllium to numbers of sunspots suggest such and effect, despite present popular opinion derived from model experiments. How can we approach the problem in an objective manner?

How will the release of Siberian methane affect global warming? Can climate models predict its signature?

Because it’s a complicated process, and we can’t predict how much of the released gas may be re-absorbed by plants and the oceans, how quickly it will be released, or whether the sudden increase in methane will trigger an, as yet, un-predicted event. It is estimated that a Siberian thaw could push 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere. The U.N.-sponsored Panel on Climate Change has published its estimate for global warming over the next one hundred years, producing a rise of between 3 and 11 degrees F. The addition of Siberian gas releases could change these predictions to 5 to 15 degrees F.

What are the levels of sustainable development within each country and can these levels be quantified and compared to other countries?

Although complex, a standardized sustainability index per country, comparable to other countries, should be researched and presented. This would indicate levels of sustainability within countries, taking population growth/age, natural resources, pollution levels, etc. into account. Based on this, areas for education/action can be identified. This is both a earth system & social science topic combined, and the final outcome should be to raise awareness within these problem sectors.