How does mankind, responsible for climatic and other anthropogenic changes including geo-political and cultural processes, interact with biodiversity, ecosystems and the services they provide?

The widespread recognition of the considerable value of biodiversity and ecosystems for man kind has led to an increasing need to understand and assess the role of biodiversity and ecosystem services and to assess the changing state of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and public attitudes towards them. Understanding the changing state there is a need to analyse the impact of the most significant drivers, including human behaviour, and their interactions on biodiversity. Analysing options for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and evaluating the effectiveness of policy and communication instruments should help with what to do about the changing state of biodiversity and ecosystem services (quoted from the Common Research Strategy of ALTER-Net, a long-term biodiversity, ecosystem and awareness research network.

What factors determine the resilience of the full set of interacting ecosystem services that support human well-being and allow for adaptation to a changing environment?

This question requires interdisciplinary research among physical, biological and social sciences. It raises significant conceptual or theoretical issues, as well as significant needs for empirical research at global and regional scales. The question quickly gives rise to a host of important more specialized questions. Answers to this family of questions are relevant for applied questions of sustainability science.

Definitions: (1) Resilience is the capacity of a system to persist within thresholds or “guardrails”, adapt to changing circumstances, or transform to something new when the current mode of operation is unsustainable. (2) Ecosystem services are benefits that people receive from nature, such as provision of food and water, regulation of water flows and quality, and cultural values. They can be analyzed at the global scale or for specific landscapes and seascapes.

Challenges: A key challenge is that changes in ecosystem services generally have strong correlations. That is, changes that cause increases in one group of ecosystem services often cause decreases in another group of ecosystem services. These tradeoffs among bundles of ecosystem services are not well understood. In management, they lead to unintended adverse consequences. These consequences often take systems across thresholds, degrade resilience, and impair the capacity of the system to respond adaptively to future environmental changes. Thus understanding the tradeoffs has fundamental importance for sustainable management.

Obstacles: In order to address this question, new frameworks for interdisciplinary collaboration are needed. Also there are significant needs for conceptual development, theoretical research, monitoring at global and regional scales, and empirical research at global and regional scales.

How will permafrost affect and be affected by global environmental change?

Permafrost is defined as ground that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. Permafrost underlies approximately 25 % of the land area in the northern hemisphere and can be up to 1500 m thick. Under current climate-change scenarios, permafrost degrades from both the top and bottom, increasing the depth of the “active layer”, and the extent of talik formation.

The deepening of the active layer could trigger the massive decomposition of organic matter stored in the first three meters below surface. The most recent estimates put the organic carbon pool in permafrost at 50% of the global soil organic carbon pool. This pool is equivalent to twice the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. The decomposition processes would lead to the emission of vast quantities of greenhouse gases, including methane and carbon dioxide, which could greatly affect the global climate.

Under the sea, permafrost occurs as subsea permafrost. Its presence on Arctic shelves is intrinsically linked to the occurrence of gas hydrates which are released to the atmosphere through “holes” in the permafrost, called gas seeps. Its exact distribution on the shelves of the Arctic has not yet been correctly assessed, which hampers the attempts to correctly depict the mechanisms of gas hydrate occurrence and release.

In alpine areas, permafrost is responsible for the occurrence and the preservation of landforms that could evolve dramatically, resulting in large scale natural hazards for alpine valley settlements. In the Arctic, rapid coastal erosion of permafrost is expected to increase dramatically following the drastic reduction of summer sea ice extent, threatening the existence of Inuit communities.

Permafrost observation and monitoring is probably one of the most important challenges of the twenty-first century

More information on theIPA website

What are the global impacts (socio, economic, others) of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation?

The reason why the “Vision” must address this question is that biodiversity loss impacts local communities, environmentally, culturally, socially, and economically. However, unless we have a global perspective of the level of the threat (ex. IPCC and climate change), we will be hard pushed to reach the tipping point of public concern to come up with the level of response required.

How can we effectively modify the dangerous human striving for more and more?

In one of the last issues of Science (3 July, p.11), Thomas R. Pickering, in an Editorial mentioned, “ We can begin to think now on a larger scale – an opportunity not to be wasted.” and pointing to interrelationships “…that the issues of economic growth, development, and poverty be seen as linked with the key drivers of food, water, and health, just as climate change is now linked to the key drivers of energy and environment…” he suggested: “Because improvements in any one area depend on the other two, why not devote a summit at the UN General Assembly to the interlinked broad questions of food water and health ?”

Indeed a wonderful idea and first and foremost demonstrating, the world is not a collection of things but a system of interacting processes (dynamics in signaling networks!) So, focusing on natural sciences alone will never be enough, to solve the challenging questions for our planet’s future. There is a human-induced warming in addition to natural trends and cycles of natural climate change and of course, if there should be a solution at all, we have to mind social sciences as well.

Truism is: Economic growth cannot be unlimited and ecology shows the fatal consequences of the call for a never ending consumerism. Ongoing conceptions, initiated by the global financial crisis together with “Peak Oil” and climate crisis, like the “Green New Deal” together with an up-dated “green Keynesianism” are perhaps better than nothing but, basing on sole economic growth, they cannot be the solution.

Kohlmann

How can we satisfy the (increasingly conflicting) needs to maintain global human well-being and to maintain global biodiversity (including its “option values” for the future)?

Earth system research focuses on “observing, understanding, reconstructing and predicting global environmental changes involving interactions between land, atmosphere, water, ice, biosphere, societies, technologies and economies”. The question I pose is perhaps the most fundamental of the “interactions” questions relating to global environmental change. It matches well the Vision’s goals to identify “research questions that… would provide answers that are relevant to the needs of decision-makers concerned with global environmental change and human well-being”. This question might have been listed only under “biodiversity” – but I list it as “Interdisciplinary” because it is an multidisciplinary challenge, and perhaps calls for new institutions and programs over the next decade. At same time, it makes sense that “biodiversity” is highlighted because biodiversity underpins present and future benefits and services.

This question is important in next decade because there is a narrow window of opportunity to find effective solutions. Answers to the question would serve the needs of decision-makers in addressing the increasing “tensions” between local versus global values; current versus future benefits; known elements of diversity versus unknown elements, etc. There are good opportunities to make a difference in the next decade. For example, emerging new technologies for rapid biodiversity discovery and assessment, if well-coordinated regionally and globally, might help us to integrate biodiversity values into interdisciplinary conservation planning, and into policy frameworks such as “beyond-2010”.

What are the regional vulnerabilities in the availability of fresh water to support human needs and sustain freshwater biodiversity, and how can these vulnerabilities be mitigated?

Fresh water is multi-user resource subject to multiple threats including over-exploitation and contamination such that both quantity and quality of water is absolutely limiting for humans in many parts of the globe. Freshwater ecosystems support around 10% of global biodiversity (in less than 1% of the Earth’s surface area), and provide valuable ecosystem services upon which humans depend. Growing human water demands are placing increasing pressure on the ability of freshwater ecosystems to meet human needs, and degrading the capacity of fresh waters to sustain biodiversity. There is evidence that freshwater biodiversity is already undergoing pandemic decline, but responses to these declines at regional or larger scales are lacking. Global climate change and burgeoning populations will exacerbate present conflicts between humans and nature as demands for fresh water increase, but the vulnerability of fresh water biodiversity to impacts arising from this conflict will vary regionally. It is imperative that we identify which regions are now – and which will be – most vulnerable with respect to human needs for water and potential biodiversity loss. These data will provide an essential first step to devising adaptation and mitigation measures intended to ensure that human water requirements can be met without loss of biodiversity or irreparable degradation of freshwater ecosystem function.

How long can the Earth System sustain the present rate of human-induced global-environmental change?

Humans are modifying the planet at an alarming rate. Cropland and pasture now cover almost 50% of the entire land surface. This has led to massive habitat destruction, fragmentation and pollution and, together with overhunting, is causing a critical loss in biodiversity. Agricultural pollution is also having a devastating impact on aquatic and marine ecosystems which, together with industrial fishing, is causing collapse of key species populations within these ecosystems. Industrial pollution and burning hydrocarbons is causing polar warming which threatens to destabilize the remaining ice-sheets and reservoirs of methane stored in the polar oceans and permafrost. With populations in the US, China and India still rising, these clearly unsustainable practices are set to continue. The critical question is how long can planetary environmental processes continue to function before these human-induced changes trigger negative feedbacks that result in a switch to an alternate and less supportive Earth System state?

What will be the contribution to sea level rise of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica over the coming century?

Sea level change is one the most outstanding issue in Earth System Science in terms of scientific and societal impact. The largest uncertainty in sea level projections is the rate of melting of ice sheets into the ocean in a warming climate. We are far from being able to make predictions of ice sheet evolution. Progress is urgently needed.

How can we boost agricultural output and improve rural livelihoods in the developing world (especially sub-Saharan Africa) without attendant land/forest degradation and resultant biodiversity loss?

Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region of the world and experiencing high rates of land degradation, desertification, forest degradation and loss. The ecology-welfare link in this part of the world is very strong and most people live outside formal institutions and markets. Declining crop yields have meant agricultural expansion and in places like the Eastern Afromontane Hotspot this means large potential for the loss of endemic species. Livelihoods here are also closely tied to annual rainfall patterns and any near term changes in these as a result of climate change may also rationalize further agricultural expansion (e.g. to areas with more stable rainfall, or as an insurance mechanism to ensure a certain level of output). Here we have a nexus of severe poverty, high biodiversity, poor agricultural productivity, climate vulnerability and potential loss of carbon stored in woodland and forest ecosystems.