How complex multifunctional landscapes will adapt to climate change: The role of science in identifying solutions to be implemented into planning and management.

Adapting landscape systems to climate change is an emerging topic in science. One of the most important challenges for future research will be to integrate research across different scales, including spatio-temporal scales within an interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary framework. If we manage to follow this route, science will be able to move from analytical to actionable climate knowledge.

Science has played an important role in putting climate change on the world agenda. We have, now, to recognize and accept that the world’s climate is already changing and will continue to do so for decades. Considering the resulting impacts on land use and biota (Barker et al. 2007; Stern 2007), the option of adapting land use and landscapes to mitigate undesired implications by climate change is now appearing on the political and research agendas. The EU has now published a “white paper” on how it will focus its climate change adaptation policy (Commission of the European Communities 2009). The emphasis is on mainstreaming adaptation measures into EU policies: agriculture, forestry, health, biodiversity, ecosystems and water, coastal and marine areas and production systems and technical infrastructure. In terms of knowledge building, this calls for integrative approaches, crossing economic, social and environmental borderlines. Science is called to play a role in identifying solutions and ways to implement these in complex multifunctional landscape change. Is science ready for this? Our view (Opdam et al 2009) is that for science to get itself well-equipped for this major task, it has to evolve its emphasis from a reductionist, analytical approach aimed at identifying impacts, to a synthetic, design oriented approach aimed at generating solutions (Meinke et al. 2006). (For more details on the subject see: Opdam et al 2009 Landscape Ecology)

In the context of climate change, how can we imporve health early warning systems (HEWS)?

Today, we are well informed about climate change even if there still remain some uncertainties, improving HEWS can be a research priority in the framework of adaptation to climate change.

Which of the coping strategies of local communities with changing climate and consequent environmental risk have become stronger and which one weaker in different regions of the world?

while Honey Bee network ( www.sristi.org) has demonstrated the power of creative and innovative coping strategies in dealing with increasing risks, uncertainties and declining institutional access, there remains a great deal of need for mapping these coping strategies worldwide. After all, without strengthening such strategies, no major model or policy framework can succeed ever. I often find as I did in IFPRI workshop on priority setting for cgiar systems that mostly, model builders carry their day disregarding the ground realities and the complexity involved therein. be it gender issues, systematic neglect of certain parameters on which data is neither collected nor analysed, or institutional redesign.

i have seen this in the millennium ecosystem study as well, only lip service was paid to such issues, i will not be surprised if you choose to neglect this question again.
prof anil k gupta iim ahemdabad anilg@iimahd.ernet.in

What will the world – its climate, its ecosystems, and its human societies look like with 1000 ppm of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?

It is unlikely, for political and economic reasons, that greenhouse gas emissions will be curbed in any significant way. As a consequence, emissions will rise to at least 1000 parts per million in the atmosphere. Society must know what that new world is, so that we can adapt.

How much will slowly deteriorating conditions of environment, climate and global warming affect human health in the next 1 to 5 decades?

In one experiment a frog was dropped suddenly in very hot water container and what is observed is obvious that he jumped out of a container and ran away. Next time a similar experiment was performed differently. A frog was kept in an open container with tap water. Then It is kept on heater and slowly allowed container to heat. On the first day temperature was kept at 40 degrees. Like this each day temperature was raised step by step. During each rise in temperature the frog reaction was observed. It is seen that as temperature rises to say 60 degrees, a frog tried to get adjusted him self with what we called as-slowly deteriorating conditions. Even at temperature above 60, 65 he does same thing. But a frog never tried to jump out of a container to survive, instead he tried to get adjusted. One day temperature was raised to 80 and more. This time the frog tried hard to survive himself but unfortunately could not survive and ended his life in a container. But he never tried to jump out of the container to survive. The conclusion is that all living animals have the tendency to adjust themselves with such slowly varying, though deteriorating, conditions. All of us today are going to be victims of these conditions created by us! The slowly changing environment conditions, micro climatic changes, global warming and deforestation etc. need to be curbed urgently. Many animal species are vanishing today only because of these conditions. It not only affects earth system but also human health.

How will Carbon markets improve adaptation to climate change in Africa?

Since the launch of the Kyoto Protocol, two main directions have been taken to respond to climate change impacts. one is to develop mitigation strategies with important reduction of CO2; second is to develop adaptation strategies for vulnerable community. These two strategies are quite well separated. this question tries to investigate the natural links between mitigation and adaptation using the green economy appended to carbon markets in Africa. Recently we discussed the issue of whether carbon can buy food, because of large carbon and biofuel projects carried out in Africa whereas small efforts are dedicated to adaptation measures. The issue raised several sub themes such as equity, ethics, african priorities in climate change issues, etc. In other words, is it more important to develop mitigation projects instead of adaptation projects.

When (and how do we decide) are we at a climatic point where earth system engineering becomes appropriate and necessary?

Increasingly researchers and politicians are beginning to discuss earth system engineering methods as an important option in a suite of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Extensive scientific research is required before the political consensus can be developed. This is not an optimistic decision, but the necessary background research would do much to make the decision informed.

Given boundary conditions (e.g. budget constraints; human kind’s need for food and shelter; present state, pace and length of physical processes, etc.), what is, from an economic (but not only) point of view the right mix of mitigation/prevention and adaptation actions and policies to deal with (and cope with the consequences of) natural resource (land, water, climate, biodiversity, etc.) and sustainability problems?

Policy makers have to make real life choices which include accepting that some/most impacts of human activities on nature are unavoidable. The question is what is the most efficient way to deal with them: mitigation or adaptation, or more likely which combination of the two.

Analysis to arrive at answers will be complicated not in the least because of its interdisciplinary nature.

How can policy options best be developed to adapt human life to the worst-case scenarios of climate change?

The political or technical processes to mitigate climate change may well not succeed. Ecosystem/social science needs to define survivable adaptions for environmental services under likely climate extremes.

Late in this century, policy makers world-wide are likely to need well-founded options for the support and movement of their populations, depending upon which path of development climate change follows. Defining and evaluating potential strategies now would be a sensible precaution, one that could lead to posing many engineering and scientific questions that we can address successfully during the next decade (and beyond).