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	<title>Earth System Visioning &#187; climate model</title>
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	<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org</link>
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		<title>Do climate and biogeochemical models simulate past changes well enough that we can have confidence in their ability to tell us the effects of different options for the future?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/do-we-have-enough-confidence-in-climate-and-biogeochemical-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/do-we-have-enough-confidence-in-climate-and-biogeochemical-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:26:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ewwo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=858</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is pointless to make ever more detailed projections unless we have good confidence in the models &#8211; and right now they are still a ways away from being able to understand even the relatively recent past.  We are far from being in a position to move away from a natural science agenda, as [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/do-we-have-enough-confidence-in-climate-and-biogeochemical-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What are the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-are-the-spatial-and-temporal-characteristics-of-natural-climate-variability/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-are-the-spatial-and-temporal-characteristics-of-natural-climate-variability/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 09:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>sjphipps</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural variability]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1764</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The climate system exhibits internal variability on a broad range of timescales. However, the observational record is short, and the understanding of climate variability on decadal timescales and longer is therefore limited.
The detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change requires a complete understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability. Furthermore, without [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-are-the-spatial-and-temporal-characteristics-of-natural-climate-variability/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Can we quantify uncertainties in complex models of the complete Earth System?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/can-we-quantify-uncertainties-in-complex-models-of-the-complete-earth-system/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/can-we-quantify-uncertainties-in-complex-models-of-the-complete-earth-system/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2009 17:10:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cornford</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biodiversity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interdisciplinary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social-Ecological Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainties]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1565</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The models we are using to base our judgements on are all imperfect. We must acknowledge this and attempt to address quantitatively how these uncertainties affect the judgements we are able to make on the basis of these models. Without uncertainty estimates (error bars if you like) any decision making will be arbitrary. With them [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/can-we-quantify-uncertainties-in-complex-models-of-the-complete-earth-system/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How will the release of Siberian methane affect global warming? Can climate models predict its signature?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/siberian-methane/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/siberian-methane/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 22:52:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>anilbharat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biodiversity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CO2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[methane]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Siberia]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=769</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Because it&#8217;s a complicated process, and we can&#8217;t predict how much of the released gas may be re-absorbed by plants and the oceans, how quickly it will be released, or whether the sudden increase in methane will trigger an, as yet, un-predicted event. It is estimated that a Siberian thaw could push 500 billion tonnes [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/siberian-methane/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How will climate change impact groundwater resources?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/climate-change-impact-groundwater/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/climate-change-impact-groundwater/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2009 08:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>caballero</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Groundwater resources are the main source of drinking water throughout the world. The drivers to their future evolution are linked to most of the remaining uncertainties of climate modelling (future rainfall and intensity of it). Describing precisely the reservoirs geometry and the boundary conditions of aquifers is complex and limit our capacity to estimate the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/climate-change-impact-groundwater/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How can we obtain non-biased probability distributions (i.e. error bars) for various aspects of Earth System model projections as climate sensitivity, sea-level rise or MOC strength?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/nonbiased-probability-distributions-in-earth-system-modelin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/nonbiased-probability-distributions-in-earth-system-modelin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2009 12:04:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FlorianRauser</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Earth System models used for decadal and centennial projections are usually manually tuned in a high dimensional parameter space to fit current day&#8217;s climate. For physically and statistically reliable PDFs of climate quantities of interest at the end of this century we need methodical development and improvement of: automatic tuning processes, valid training data sets [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/07/nonbiased-probability-distributions-in-earth-system-modelin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How will different landscapes on Earth react on future climate change?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-different-landscapes-on-earth-react-on-future-climate-change/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-different-landscapes-on-earth-react-on-future-climate-change/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:35:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>edietze</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biodiversity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interdisciplinary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[adaptation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[landscapes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1357</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is important to find out about future climate change (especially by reconstructing the past), but I think it is even more important for the adaption to future changes if we know how the landscapes we are living in will react on it and how sensitive what kind of landscape is to climate change. Landscape [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-different-landscapes-on-earth-react-on-future-climate-change/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How can local and regional environmental changes be scaled accurately and effectively to enhance the assessment of global changes, and vice-versa? How can we enhance the applicability of global predictions of biodiversity loss, water scarcity, climate change etc. to local and regional decision-making?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/local-regional-changes-enhance-global-assessment-vice-versa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/local-regional-changes-enhance-global-assessment-vice-versa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2009 16:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cpwong11</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biodiversity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interdisciplinary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social-Ecological Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decisions & choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[local impacts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regional impacts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Environmental change occurs at varying temporal and spatial scales. Therefore it is imperative we understand how to utilize existing models and scientific understanding to create realistic predictions of biophysical thresholds and environmental consequences that governments and communities can utilize and comprehend. Furthermore, we need to understand how to relate the mitigation, adaptation, and conservation policies [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/local-regional-changes-enhance-global-assessment-vice-versa/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How will polar climate respond to continued global warming?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-polar-climate-respond-to-continued-global-warming/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-polar-climate-respond-to-continued-global-warming/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 08:00:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>summerhayes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interdisciplinary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ice sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polar regions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sea level]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=2013</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Current climate models do not adequately simulate the behaviour of the climate at the poles (a) because they are based largely on tropical to mid-latitude processes, and (b) because they ignore the effects of changing ozone through time. Without improvements in polar climate models we shall be unable to provide any adequate projection of the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/how-will-polar-climate-respond-to-continued-global-warming/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What is the role of the biosphere in regulating climate, and which systems and processes are most influential?</title>
		<link>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-is-the-role-of-the-biosphere-in-regulating-climate/</link>
		<comments>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-is-the-role-of-the-biosphere-in-regulating-climate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:19:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>gmace</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biodiversity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[basic research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[biosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[feedback]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.icsu-visioning.org/?p=1499</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Climate models tend to include interactions with the biosphere quite generally, yet the ecological and evolutionary responses and feedbacks are potentially very significant but hard to predict. An obstacle is that we probably don&#8217;t know enough about the processes to develop better models until more relevant basic research has been undertaken.
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.icsu-visioning.org/2009/08/what-is-the-role-of-the-biosphere-in-regulating-climate/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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