What is the differential sensitivity of ecosystems to warming?

The effect of global warming on ecosystem functioning results from the product of the rate of warming and the ecosystem sensitivity to a unit of warming.

(1) Warming Effects on Ecosystem Functioning = Ecosystem Sensitivity * Rate of Warming

Here, we define ecosystem sensitivity as the degree of change in ecosystem functioning per unit of warming; and we separate the degree of warming from the ecosystem response. In the past, the focus has been on the degree of warming assuming that all ecosystems were equally responsive to warming. Consequently, we expected that ecosystems that would warm the most would change the most. However, are all ecosystems equally sensitive to warming? Are arid ecosystems more sensitive than mesic ecosystems? Are ecosystems in lower latitudes more sensitive than ecosystems in higher latitudes? If so, the expected higher warming of higher latitudes may be offset by lower sensitivity. There is a major gap in our understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to warming at the continental scale because experimental studies lack full geographical coverage.

What is the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for strengthening biodiversity science and acquiring baseline data for monitoring biodiversity in data poor areas of the world?

Biodiversity rich areas of the world, typically located in the tropics, have a marked deficit of trained personnel and adequate funding for monitoring, planning and prioritizing the conservation of its significant species and ecosystems. These pressing resource imbalances must be tackled through the combination of immediate remedies and long-term strategies for effective biodiversity protection, management, and capacity building.

A central problem is that the majority of tropical organisms remain unknown. Even among the better-known taxonomic groups (e.g. birds and mammals) new species continue to be described every year. For species that have already been described, there may be only limited knowledge on their distributions, no information on their relative abundances, and fewer data on their dynamics. Available data, such as those generated from specimens and deposited in natural history museums, are of limited use: sampling of tropical locations tends to be patchy, thus not adequately reflecting true patterns in the distributions of organisms.

Identifying and implementing cost-effective strategies to close these biodiversity-knowledge-scientific capacity gaps will be key for national reporting of progress towards the CBD 2010 Biodiversity Target and the Millennium Development Goals, ultimately seeking to halt and reverse biodiversity loss.

How can we improve the decision processes that affect the ecosystem services for human well being?

Day by day it is becoming more evident what has been obvious: if we dont answer this question it will not matter how much more we learn about the workings of the earth system

How is biodiversity related to ecosystem functions or services?

The importance of biodiversity is quite often pointed out. However, it is not clear how the diversity is related to ecosytem functions or to ecosystem services. Most scientists working on diversities are not always working on their functional aspects or not always aware of the importance to integrate them into a whole ecosystem. However, without such scientific explanations, people won’t be convinced to preserve biodiversities. It is surely not an easy question, but scientists should collaborate together to answer it.

How will cryospheric changes at the poles impact polar terrestrial and marine ecosystems and the Earth’s climate?

Global climate change is heavily noticed at the poles. Sea ice diminishes, ice shelves collapse and ice sheets shrinking as ice melts and glaciers accelerate. Consequences are manifold:

A large subglacial hydrological system exists beneath the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet. Across this system the ice and water interacts with the underlying lithosphere and biochemical processes mobilizing nutrients which are subsequently transported to the ocean. Hidden beneath kilometer thick ice these interactions are not yet studied, neither the flux quantified nor the faith of nutrients in the ocean is known. Yet processes, like mobilization of iron from fine glacial flower, could play a role in fertility of the polar ocean.

Changes in the extent of polar ice coverage exposes large areas of ocean floor to an open ocean or to semi perennial ice coverage as well as large continental areas. This exposes large areas to sun light and allows photosynthesis. Changes in the availability of light will change the food web and nutrient supply. Photosynthetic communities will likely replace chemotrophic communities. Unknown are the effect on the marine food web, global chemical cycles and feedback to the Earth Climate system. Especially understudied in this regard is the ecosystem of the polar oceans. To detect and quantify change here, a base line needs first to be established.

Glaciers and sea-ice at the poles also play a crucial role for the global circulation of the ocean. Increased melting at the poles will freshen the ocean impacting thermo hyaline circulation. A similar effect will have shrinking sea-ice extend and collapse of ice shelves. Yet many of these processes are not yet well understood. (see Global Water Cycle question)

What is the feedback of ecosystems and in particular soils to changing climate?

Current models vastly disagree on the fate on the current terrestrial carbon sink, leading to large uncertainties regarding climate-carbon cycle feedback? Recent research indicates that soils contain more than 4 times as much carbon as the atmosphere (>3000 Pg), and soil carbon processes are clearly understudied.

Are the world’s ecosystems in imminent danger of destruction due to the rate of temperature increase?

‘Leemans and Eickhout (2004) found that adaptive capacity decreases rapidly with an increasing rate of climate change. Their study finds that five percent of all ecosystems cannot adapt more quickly than 0.1 C per decade over time. Forests will be among the ecosystems to experience problems first because their ability to migrate to stay within the climate zone they are adapted to is limited. If the rate is 0.3 C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will not be able to adapt. If the rate should exceed 0.4 C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, opportunistic species will dominate, and the breakdown of biological material will lead to even greater emissions of CO2. This will in turn increase the rate of warming’ –Leemans and Eickhout (2004), ‘Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change,’ Global Environmental Change 14, 219–228

How can we measure the relationship between parasites, prey and human diseases under global environmental change conditions and how does it affect ecosystem stability?

Proper functioning of the environment depends not on one but many complex interactions between the living and non-living systems. Ecosystems and their services are the building blocks behind all natural resources. Within the living systems a lot has been done but not captured the interactions between parasites, prey, diseases and ecosystem functioning. Yet this system affects biodiversity, agriculture, and social systems such as trade and global cooperation.

How do we meet the human wellbeing requirements (e.g. food and nutritional security, health, livelihoods) of current and future human populations without increasing pressure on already vulnerable ecosystems?

Increasing evidence suggests that demands on food production are likely to reach a peak mid-century. At the same time, our ability to produce and transport sufficient food is predicted to be reduced by climate change (temperature and water dynamics), carbon costs (chemicals, transport), and the loss of land to energy production.

There will therefore be increasing pressure on:
• natural resources (land and associated water and soil, biodiversity), leading to trade-offs for ecosystem service provisioning (with impacts on livelihoods, ecosystem and human health, security) and other land uses (agriculture, biofuels, urban planning, conservation, recreation)
• agricultural practice leading for the need for new and innovative techniques and technologies, and the concomitant risks for environmental and human health

To stand a chance of tackling these inter-related issues, mechanisms and funding for regional and global projects that move beyond assessment are required. Projects should be interdisciplinary and participatory incorporating researchers, practitioners and the people whose wellbeing is under investigation. Such work should not only allow conceptual and theoretical development in the fields of environmental and sustainability science but must also have impact on the ground, creating opportunities for improved human wellbeing and increased resilience not just for now, but into the future also.

How can we restore biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem functions (services); and what are ecological mechanisms & relevant methods for ecological restoration?

As most of the ecosystems and their services are degraded or not in a good shape and biodiversity is declining, we start to understand more and more about the importance of these for humans. A next step is thus to try to improve and restore the valuable ecosystems with their biodiversity and restore the services of these systems. Restoration ecology is a new and dynamicaly developing branch of science.