How much and how quickly will methane be released from the polar regions?

There is more carbon locked up in methane (permafrost and clathrates) than carbon left on the planet in oil and gas. Methane is ~25 time more effective as a greenhouse gas so could have a massive impact on climate change. However we have little/no idea the rate of release of it either from the marine or the terrestrial envirment. Research is critically required now to understand the processed and then quantify the likely effects.

How will polar climate respond to continued global warming?

Current climate models do not adequately simulate the behaviour of the climate at the poles (a) because they are based largely on tropical to mid-latitude processes, and (b) because they ignore the effects of changing ozone through time. Without improvements in polar climate models we shall be unable to provide any adequate projection of the decay of ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise.

What are the key processes that control the size and shape of the global ocean overturning circulation, and how will they combine to influence its future evolution?

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the global ocean has a governing role over the Earth’s climate, a consequence of the enormous capacity of the ocean to store and redistribute heat, freshwater, carbon dioxide and other climatically-important tracers. This results in the MOC being arguably the most prominent feature of the climate system that transcends physical, chemical and biological processes, linking atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions with the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical processes, including ocean acidification. The MOC is known to exhibit variability on timescales from months to millennia, and has the potential to induce abrupt change in climate, most pertinently in the region of the North Atlantic.

The mechanisms governing the strength, shape and variability of the overturning circulation are not fully understood, but include wind forcing, buoyancy forcing and mixing. It has been postulated that the polar regions, where global climate change impacts are predicted to occur earliest and with largest amplitude, play a disproportionately important role in these. A combination of theoretical studies, model simulations and observational analysis (including monitoring of the present state and assessment of paleo conditions) is essential to better understand these mechanisms and to predict future changes.

Can we quantify the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) as a function of space and time?

The MOC moves 90% of the heat and dissolved gases around the planet yet it is very poorly quantified in space and time.

The MOC is changing markedly as the drivers in the polar regions change ever faster (sea ice formation, ice-shelf distribution, temperature and salinity changes etc.).

Understanding and quantification is very low at present, partly because it has been very difficult and expensive to measure but new technology provides important new opportunities to establish an appropriate long term monitoring network. Data from such a global network would offer fundamental improvements to models and hence increase the accuracy of projections.

How will cryospheric changes at the poles impact polar terrestrial and marine ecosystems and the Earth’s climate?

Global climate change is heavily noticed at the poles. Sea ice diminishes, ice shelves collapse and ice sheets shrinking as ice melts and glaciers accelerate. Consequences are manifold:

A large subglacial hydrological system exists beneath the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet. Across this system the ice and water interacts with the underlying lithosphere and biochemical processes mobilizing nutrients which are subsequently transported to the ocean. Hidden beneath kilometer thick ice these interactions are not yet studied, neither the flux quantified nor the faith of nutrients in the ocean is known. Yet processes, like mobilization of iron from fine glacial flower, could play a role in fertility of the polar ocean.

Changes in the extent of polar ice coverage exposes large areas of ocean floor to an open ocean or to semi perennial ice coverage as well as large continental areas. This exposes large areas to sun light and allows photosynthesis. Changes in the availability of light will change the food web and nutrient supply. Photosynthetic communities will likely replace chemotrophic communities. Unknown are the effect on the marine food web, global chemical cycles and feedback to the Earth Climate system. Especially understudied in this regard is the ecosystem of the polar oceans. To detect and quantify change here, a base line needs first to be established.

Glaciers and sea-ice at the poles also play a crucial role for the global circulation of the ocean. Increased melting at the poles will freshen the ocean impacting thermo hyaline circulation. A similar effect will have shrinking sea-ice extend and collapse of ice shelves. Yet many of these processes are not yet well understood. (see Global Water Cycle question)

How to articulate the geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, the global politics of decision-making and decision-taking and the Earth System Research both for the Arctic and the Antarctic?

In articulation with the previous question, this one aims to consider the subject within the political decision process which makes everything else dependent.

As the previous one, I couldn’t find any question considering these 3 factors in parallel.