How can biodiversity serve a role in agricultural resilience to climate change, both in supporting ecosystem services, and for adaptability of livelihoods?

Biodiversity has formed the basis for human food production systems and human livelihoods for millennia. Due to agricultural intensification, land use change, and global warming, agricultural biodiversity is at high risk. The in situ genetic resources of crops and livestock are threatened, and also, many stress-adapted landraces are being replaced by modern high-input varieties. These losses create important problems for generating the genetics and breeding programs to adapt to climate change. Resilience can also be potentially accomplished with greater reliance on complex multispecies systems, including microbes, soil fauna, and beneficial insects. To increase adaptive capacity, appropriate social, cultural and economic contexts are needed for research programs that involve the participation of those who are intended to benefit from research. This will require adaptive management and long-term alliances between diverse stakeholders that increase the coping ability during unpredictable periods of resource limitation, e.g., drought. In a wider context, at the landscape scale, biodiversity serves important functions that enhance the environmental resource base upon which agriculture depends, e.g., water purification in nearby wildland waterways, and regional effects on microclimate and water availability due to forest cover. There is still much to be learned about how decision-makers at various scales can work together to support research and coping strategies to manage the mosaic of ecosystems in a landscape in ways that support sustainability and high productivity as the climate changes, and to enhance diversification that will permit adaptive responses in response to extreme events.

What are the components and dimensions of biodiversity that are necessary for particular ecosytem processes, functions and services, now and in the future?

Biodiversity has many dimensions (composition, variation, richness, phylogenetic, interactions and networks). We understand that diversity and variability provide insurance against future changes (~resilience). But which measures of biodiversity will best predict the quality and quantity of ecosystem processes, functions and services that biodiversity supports and on which we depend? When, where and how is biodiversity most significant? Answering this question, even in very general terms, is a necessary pre-requisite to an effective biodiversity monitoring system, to predicting damaging impacts of biodiversity loss, and will contribute to fully integrated earth system models.

Issue of resilience of our Oceans vis-a-vis climate and geosphere/biosphere changes, as all sort of pressures (natural and anthropogenic) are affecting today the Oceans Realm? How much resilient our Oceans will be for the next coming decades?

Important issue as oceans constitute more than 2/3 of our planet.
Do we have good models of prediction to assist decison-makers in their planning of oceans management and governance?

How do we meet the human wellbeing requirements (e.g. food and nutritional security, health, livelihoods) of current and future human populations without increasing pressure on already vulnerable ecosystems?

Increasing evidence suggests that demands on food production are likely to reach a peak mid-century. At the same time, our ability to produce and transport sufficient food is predicted to be reduced by climate change (temperature and water dynamics), carbon costs (chemicals, transport), and the loss of land to energy production.

There will therefore be increasing pressure on:
• natural resources (land and associated water and soil, biodiversity), leading to trade-offs for ecosystem service provisioning (with impacts on livelihoods, ecosystem and human health, security) and other land uses (agriculture, biofuels, urban planning, conservation, recreation)
• agricultural practice leading for the need for new and innovative techniques and technologies, and the concomitant risks for environmental and human health

To stand a chance of tackling these inter-related issues, mechanisms and funding for regional and global projects that move beyond assessment are required. Projects should be interdisciplinary and participatory incorporating researchers, practitioners and the people whose wellbeing is under investigation. Such work should not only allow conceptual and theoretical development in the fields of environmental and sustainability science but must also have impact on the ground, creating opportunities for improved human wellbeing and increased resilience not just for now, but into the future also.

Model experiments, intercomparisons and data evaluation are needed to quantify and help with management decisions and, ultimately, to provide scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. Which interactive physical, chemical and biological processes – including the role of human activities from global to regional and at short and long timescales – are fundamental to study in order to gain a deeper understanding of the Earth System and priority areas such as vulnerability, impacts and adaptation?

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (www.igbp.net) is embarking on a series of scientific syntheses to be completed by 2014. the initial synthesis topics, try to bring together some of the issues raised in the above question and include

• Global limits to growth
• Geoengineering
• The role of changing nutrient loads in coastal zones and the open ocean in an increased CO2 world
• Global nitrogen assessment and a future outlook
• Earth-system resilience: Earth-system prediction
• Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere
• Megacities and coastal zones
• Global environmental change and sustainable development: the needs of least developed countries
• The role of land cover and land use in modulating climate
• Aerosols
• Additional themes forthcoming (e.g. freshwater cycle; global to regional predictions on shorter timescales)

The scientific effort, much along the lines of what the recent review of ICSU advised for IGBP, is open to the global change community and partner programmes and will
- be guided by scientific excellence;
- Identify knowledge gaps, focus future efforts, and set priorities at IGBP core project level and beyond;
- Complement and draw from IGBP’s core projects and other global change research;
- Frame the Earth as an integrated system strongly affected by humans;
- Integrate the multiple stressors on the Earth system, its limits and its resilience;
- Develop a suite of products for a range of audiences, primarily the research community to identify future priorities and policymaker to formulate policy;
- Provide policy-relevant information and solutions on mitigation, adaptation, key uncertainties, tipping elements, integrated effects and responses in critical regions;
- Engage with a wide range of stakeholders to assist us develop a consistent set of guidelines for the syntheses and identify key science- and policy‐relevant themes. Stakeholders include IGBP scientists and core projects, other policy‐oriented scientists, policymakers, national committees, international ICSU unions, key leaders involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and other large international activities.

How can we identify and manage looming thresholds in social-ecological systems arising from resilience – development trade-offs, especially those across scales?

Rising human numbers and increasing use of natural resources are lowering resilience in most regions of the world. Some of the changes will result in irreversible, or very hard to reverse, regime shifts in the coupled social-ecological systems concerned. They are already happening (salinized agricultural regions, desertified rangelands, collapsed fisheries, degraded ex-forest areas, etc.). We need to know how to identify such threshold effects before they happen, and how to manage them.

How will the growing human population change the land cover (albedo), water and atmosphere composition in the next 20-50 years and what feedbacks will occur as symptoms of our planet resilience?

Feedbacks will create new conditions for our species that will have to evolve to adapt to polluted air, polluted water and a changed climate. The sooner we start paying attention to these feedbacks that will cause diseases, migrations, wars, famines, the sooner we can invest in creative strategies to improve or maintain human’s livelihoods and stop wasting time and energy on useless pursuits.

Can the adaptability of Earth and ecosystems be also enhanced through physical and biological means while enhancing human adaptability in the wake of climate crisis?

We are panicking that Earth system is going to fail as its capacity to maintain is being tested to limits due to massive human activity. As we are not sure about the Earth’s exact ability to restore itself or to adapt to the human alterations, we need more precise information and measurements and should research on devising bio and physical technologies to enhance Earth’s capacity to adapt to growing human activities.