Which is the space weather for tomorrow?

The active Sun has an incontestable influence on our Planet and its environment. The effects of the solar-terrestrial relations are known as space weather. Forecasting the space weather conditions is crucial as they affect our life, via:

- Geomagnetic storms which are caused by impacts of coronal mass ejections on the terrestrial magnetosphere, leading to very rapid changes of the geomagnetic field. This can induce strong currents in the extended electric
conductors like high voltage lines or pipelines. The consequences are power outages and damaged transformers, or rapid corrosion of pipelines.

- Energetic protons and electrons that are produced by flares and coronal mass ejections, and which can damage the electronics of satellites, and endanger astronauts.

- Enhanced electromagnetic radiation, mainly X-rays from flares modify the upper atmosphere, which absorbs this radiation, is heated up, increasing the air density in the range of low satellite orbits. Satellites can deviate from their orbits due to the enhanced aerodynamic drag and eventually crash. This radiation can also change the structure of the ionosphere, which in turn can affect the short-wave radio communications, but also for navigation systems like GPS, since precise position requires exact modeling of the propagation of satellite signals through the ionosphere.

What is the influence of trends in solar output on the atmosphere and oceans?

Because of the comparatively short period for which we have observations of the variations in the sun’s energy output, we have no reliable information of its longer-term trends and their probable effect on the earth’s temperature trends. Yet studies of indirect observations from Beryllium to numbers of sunspots suggest such and effect, despite present popular opinion derived from model experiments. How can we approach the problem in an objective manner?