How can we better monitor, model, and predict the interdependent impacts of alternative strategies for managing the global environment in support of future decision making?

Significant changes are already under way in the Earth’s environment at local, regional, and global scales. Increasing attention is being given to proposals for mitigating or modifying human drivers of environmental change, as well as to alternative strategies for adaptation and environmental management. These policy alternatives could themselves have important impacts on the environment and on human activities and welfare, and may also have unexpected or synergistic interactions, e.g., mitigation strategies that increase or shift vulnerabilities to climate change. The Earth systems research community will be increasingly called upon to assess the potential benefits and risks of specific options and of alternative strategies (e.g., geoengineering vs. adaptation). A particular concern is the potential for conflicting approaches to be adopted by different nations, groups of nations, or other stakeholders. It is essential to start now to develop the data, models, tools, and strategies needed to support better and more rapid decision making with regard to management of the global environment, even in the face of continuing scientific uncertainties and incomplete information.