How can the future growth of settlements in the third world (Africa) be sustainable and planned?

The recent UN-HABITAT (2008) report on rate of urbanization said that the number of people of living in urban areas will more than double its 2007 level of 373.4 Million by 2030. Unlike in the developed western world where the urbanization process is taking place within a planned environment, in Africa the cities are growing without any plan or pattern. Slums are in the increase all over the cities of Africa with its attendant consequences of crime, poverty and health problems which has the capacity to truncate any global effort to make our earth a better and safer place. We must therefore address the root causes of unplanned growth and institutionalize community planning so that each community within and outside the cities of Africa and other developing countries would see the beauty of planning so that the towns are not only planned but provision are made for conservation and environmental protection.

Model experiments, intercomparisons and data evaluation are needed to quantify and help with management decisions and, ultimately, to provide scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. Which interactive physical, chemical and biological processes – including the role of human activities from global to regional and at short and long timescales – are fundamental to study in order to gain a deeper understanding of the Earth System and priority areas such as vulnerability, impacts and adaptation?

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (www.igbp.net) is embarking on a series of scientific syntheses to be completed by 2014. the initial synthesis topics, try to bring together some of the issues raised in the above question and include

• Global limits to growth
• Geoengineering
• The role of changing nutrient loads in coastal zones and the open ocean in an increased CO2 world
• Global nitrogen assessment and a future outlook
• Earth-system resilience: Earth-system prediction
• Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere
• Megacities and coastal zones
• Global environmental change and sustainable development: the needs of least developed countries
• The role of land cover and land use in modulating climate
• Aerosols
• Additional themes forthcoming (e.g. freshwater cycle; global to regional predictions on shorter timescales)

The scientific effort, much along the lines of what the recent review of ICSU advised for IGBP, is open to the global change community and partner programmes and will
- be guided by scientific excellence;
- Identify knowledge gaps, focus future efforts, and set priorities at IGBP core project level and beyond;
- Complement and draw from IGBP’s core projects and other global change research;
- Frame the Earth as an integrated system strongly affected by humans;
- Integrate the multiple stressors on the Earth system, its limits and its resilience;
- Develop a suite of products for a range of audiences, primarily the research community to identify future priorities and policymaker to formulate policy;
- Provide policy-relevant information and solutions on mitigation, adaptation, key uncertainties, tipping elements, integrated effects and responses in critical regions;
- Engage with a wide range of stakeholders to assist us develop a consistent set of guidelines for the syntheses and identify key science- and policy‐relevant themes. Stakeholders include IGBP scientists and core projects, other policy‐oriented scientists, policymakers, national committees, international ICSU unions, key leaders involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and other large international activities.

What are the effects of urban development and land-use change on biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery? How are different socio-economic groups affected by environmental changes in urban regions?

How do existing institutions, jurisdictions and legal systems in the urban areas impact on the delivery of, and access to, ecosystem services such as drinking water, clean air, recreation, etc.?

Urbanization represents an enormous challenge when it comes to resilience and equitable supply of resources

Will some diseases become more frequent due to environmental changes, either climatic or developement-induced in a global urbanized world?

Some immunologically-mediated diseases seem to increase dramatically such as type 1 diabetes or allergies. Environmental changes associating sociological modifications and urbanization might play a role, as well as genetics and microbiology. The topic is indeed multifactorial.